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A Game-Theoretic Model of Monkeypox to Assess Vaccination Strategies

Sri Vibhaav Bankaru, Depts. of Biomedical Engineering, Math, & Chemistry, Samuel Kossol, William Hou, & Parsa Mahmoudi, with Dr. Jan Rychtar, Dept. of Mathematics

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria - disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.

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Dr. Jan Rychtar


Virginia Commonwealth University. Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program

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A Game-Theoretic Model of Monkeypox to Assess Vaccination Strategies