DOI
https://doi.org/10.25772/ZQA5-ZY26
Defense Date
1994
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Public Administration
Department
Public Policy & Administration
First Advisor
Ralph S. Hambrick, Jr.
Abstract
Public administration data is sometimes extrapolated through exponential smoothing. Sometimes such data may undergo a level shift because of a policy decision. The slope of the curve formed by connecting the periodic observations increases or decreases significantly for a brief period, thereafter returning to a slope similar to the slope preceding the policy change. This discontinuity might be called a ramp or a step. Forecasts made with exponential smoothing immediately before, during, or immediately after the ramp or step may be considerably inaccurate unless adjusted. A technique called adjusted exponential smoothing is proposed to reduce or eliminate the inaccuracy of forecasts made under such circumstances when the ramp or step arises from a planned policy decision. An empirical study is conducted to determine whether the proposed technique constitutes an improvement over other exponential smoothing techniques. The empirical study shows that the proposed technique improves the accuracy of forecasts when planned level shifts subsequently actually occur. Guidelines are provided for using the technique.
Rights
© The Author
Is Part Of
VCU University Archives
Is Part Of
VCU Theses and Dissertations
Date of Submission
10-12-2017
Comments
Scanned, with permission from the author, from the original print version, which resides in University Archives.