Author ORCID Identifier
https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4201-1140
Defense Date
2025
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science
Department
Mathematical Sciences
First Advisor
Dr. Suzanne Robertson
Second Advisor
Dr. David Chan
Third Advisor
Dr. Derek Johnson
Abstract
The spongy moth (Lymantria dispar) is an invasive forest pest that has caused significant ecological damage across the United States. Its invasion front is shaped by a number of factors, including temperature in both the northern and southern regions. With ongoing climate change, areas that were previously uninhabitable may become increasingly favorable for moth population establishment and expansion, while other areas may experience thermal stress limiting persistence. This study develops a temperature-driven population model to analyze how temperature affects the spongy moth population dynamics along the invasion front. This model incorporates temperature effects on fecundity, stage-specific survival rates, and the Allee threshold. Simulation results indicate potential range expansion under future warming projections, particularly along the northern edges of the invasion border. Northern areas may become increasingly suitable for establishment and growth, while southern populations may be constrained by thermal limits. However, this thermal stress does not render these areas uninhabitable because populations can still persist despite diminished survival rates. These findings emphasize how climate change may shift the spongy moth’s range and alter invasion risk across various regions. This study also highlights the complex and often conflicting effects of climate change on life stages and population fitness.
Rights
© Adrienne Barnes Spring
Is Part Of
VCU University Archives
Is Part Of
VCU Theses and Dissertations
Date of Submission
12-11-2025