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Abstract
El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) causes regional changes in climate and has been found to have varying effects on the survival, fecundity, and recruitment of migratory songbirds. This study seeks to better understand the effect of ENSO on the fecundity of Virginia-breeding Prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea; PROW), a neotropical migratory songbird. PROW breed in the Eastern United States and spend the non-breeding season primarily in Panama and Colombia. Ongoing research in Virginia has found a positive relationship between spring precipitation and predicted number of PROW fledgelings during La Niña, but the opposite during El Niño. To better understand this relationship, we wanted to know if the effect of ENSO was a result of conditions on the breeding grounds or carry over effects from the nonbreeding grounds. To do this, we used linear models to assess how ENSO affects vegetation health and climate conditions in Virginia as well as how it affected vegetation health in Panama and Colombia. We found that ENSO had little impact on temperature and precipitation anomalies as well as vegetation health in Virginia, regardless of season. However, in both Panama and Colombia, vegetation health was significantly lower in El Niño during the dry season when PROW were overwintering there. This indicates that differences in fecundity during the breeding season may be the result of carryover effects from dry El Niño conditions in overwintering habitats. These results are especially concerning due to predictions for increased intensity of El Niño events caused by climate change.
Publication Date
2024
Subject Major(s)
Environmental Studies, Biology
Keywords
breeding biology, climate change, el nino, prothonotary warbler, carryover effects
Disciplines
Biology | Life Sciences | Ornithology | Zoology
Current Academic Year
Sophomore
Faculty Advisor/Mentor
Dr. Lesley Bulluck
Faculty Advisor/Mentor
Daniel Albrecht-Mallinger
Rights
© The Author(s)