Author ORCID Identifier
0000-0001-7382-2636
Defense Date
2026
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy
Department
Education
First Advisor
Sharon Zumbrunn
Second Advisor
Jennifer LoCasale-Crouch
Third Advisor
Michael Broda
Fourth Advisor
Ginny Vitiello
Fifth Advisor
Traci Shizu Kutaka
Abstract
The current body of literature provides much evidence that mathematics skills at the start of kindergarten are predictive of later mathematics achievement, and that students enrolled in early childhood education (ECE) programs are better prepared for mathematics at the start of kindergarten. However, the potential for children to develop mathematical skills prior to entering kindergarten relies on access to ECE programs and resources in families’ surrounding communities. Recent use of geospatial data collection techniques and measures of community resource availability have enabled researchers to examine specific localities for the ways in which community organizations and institutions support residents in particular domains, such as health and education.
The purpose of this study was to first examine the individual three-year trajectories of one Virginia school division’s 62 kindergarten-serving schools’ rates of kindergarten students at or above the benchmark for the fall administration of the Virginia Kindergarten Readiness Program (VKRP) Early Mathematics Assessment System (EMAS). The secondary purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which schools’ VKRP EMAS benchmark pass rates predict benchmark pass rates on later Virginia Mathematics Standards of Learning (SOL) pass rates across schools. School characteristics variables (e.g., school-level measure of local early childhood education resource availability, students’ race/ethnicity rates of representation) were included in analyses to explore associations with trajectories of individual schools, as well as explore if school-level characteristics contribute to the predictive relationship between schools’ earlier and later mathematics performance. The Virginia school division in focus was selected because of its relatively low scores on a national measure of local resource availability, and evidence of variations in student outcomes across the division. Secondary data included school- and magisterial district-level data. A longitudinal growth model was developed using multilevel modeling techniques to explore the VKRP EMAS growth trajectories, while multiple regression was used to examine the predictability of VKRP EMAS pass rates on later SOL pass rates.
Results suggested that schools’ rates of kindergartners meeting or exceeding the fall VKRP EMAS initially grew, plateaued, and decreased slightly. Factors including EL rate and district assignment explained the variability in pass rates, however, the significance of the predictors depended on how resources were defined. Results also indicated that there are predictive relationships between VKRP EMAS pass rates and Grade 3 and Grade 5 Math SOL pass rates; however, VKRP EMAS no longer explained unique variance once other contextual variables were accounted for. The rate of White students and Grade 3 Math SOL pass rates became significant during model building (for VKRP EMAS to Grade 5 Math SOL model only), and indicate these variables explain more variability in SOL pass rates than VKRP EMAS pass rates.
Implications for practice include using the results to justify district initiatives aimed at increasing access to public school preschool programs in VCS, as well as supporting initiatives that are working towards increasing VCS math SOL pass rates. Implications for theory include using the proposed conceptual framework to continue examining school-level outcomes to understand educational pathways that students move through, which may lead to disproportionate outcomes. Future work is needed to better measure ECE program availability through the use of slot data. Additional work is also needed to incorporate data on whether programs receive public funding, which would contribute to the conversation around whether public investment impacts VKRP EMAS and Math SOL pass rates. The results of this study provide a local example of the complexities of ECE and the need to better understand the contextual processes that ensure children are both ready for mathematics in kindergarten and beyond.
Rights
© Bailey J. Bontrager
Is Part Of
VCU University Archives
Is Part Of
VCU Theses and Dissertations
Date of Submission
5-8-2026