Document Type
Professional Plan Capstone
Original Publication Date
2026
Client
Virginia Passenger Rail Authority
Location
Richmond, VA
Date of Submission
May 2026
Keywords
Passenger rail, intercity rail, rail corridor planning, rail performance, rail reliability, on-time performance, travel time reliability, ridership modeling, mode choice, pivot-point logit model, transportation planning, rail infrastructure investment, rail operations, schedule speed, maximum authorized speed, superelevation, curve speed analysis, continuous welded rail, rail neutral temperature, shared freight-passenger rail corridors, Richmond–Washington rail corridor, RF&P Corridor, Amtrak Virginia, Virginia Passenger Rail Authority, Transforming Rail in Virginia
Abstract
This study evaluates how targeted infrastructure and operational improvements could improve speed, reliability, and, by extension, ridership on the Richmond, Fredericksburg, and Potomac Corridor between Richmond Main Street Station and Washington Union Station. Although the corridor carries all 198 weekly Amtrak trains operating in Virginia over some portion, passenger rail remains materially less competitive than automobile travel on I-95 when compared under ideal travel conditions or by mode share. In 2024, the corridor carried 1,046,255 riders and held an estimated rail mode share of 2.4 percent relative to 42,598,057 vehicle trips on comparable I-95 segments. At the same time, average customer on time performance was approximately 60 percent, mean delay was 30.7 minutes per train, and average scheduled travel times were 145 minutes from Richmond Staples Mill Road to Washington and 174 minutes from Richmond Main Street to Washington. Timetable analysis further indicates that roughly 33 minutes of current scheduled time reflect padding beyond what dwell time and train performance alone require.
To evaluate improvement options, the study combines timetable modeling, delay based reliability analysis, and a pivot point logit model calibrated with observed 2024 ridership and traffic data and behavioral parameters adapted from the Michigan High Speed Rail Study’s Environmental Impact Statement. Reliability is represented through average delay rather than threshold based on time performance, and engineering analysis is used to test the effects of turnout, station, terminal, and curve improvements within the constraints of a shared freight corridor. The curve analysis examined 109 curves on the corridor and found 96 feasible for mixed freight and passenger operations under current freight constraints, with 50 capable of supporting 90 mph passenger operation after superelevation optimization and 11 requiring straightening to support a 90 mph program.
Findings indicate that both travel time and reliability improvements produce meaningful ridership gains. Each five minute reduction in average delay increases ridership by about 2 percent. A proactive rail neutral temperature adjustment program could reduce mean annual delay by roughly 5 to 7 minutes and increase ridership by about 2.0 to 6.2 percent. When combined with interlocking upgrades, cumulative gains rise to roughly 2.7 to 8.1 percent. A corridor wide 80 mph program based on superelevation optimization and minor realignment reduces raw trip time to about 130.5 minutes and produces a cumulative ridership increase of about 6.5 to 23.9 percent. A 90 mph program, while requiring about 55 miles of Class 5 upgrades and straightening of 11 curves, reduces overall trip time between Washington and Richmond Staples Mill Road to about 1 hour 22 minutes, roughly matching car travel time without traffic delays, and raises projected ridership by about 7.5 to 26.8 percent.
The study concludes that targeted performance improvements should be pursued in parallel with Transforming Rail in Virginia capacity expansion projects. Priority actions include improved rail neutral temperature management, higher speed interlockings, reconstruction of Richmond Staples Mill Road Station, reduction of terminal complexity between Richmond Staples Mill Road and Richmond Main Street, and a phased curve improvement program. Together, these measures provide VPRA with a practical strategy to improve rail competitiveness on a trip by trip basis while supporting longer term corridor transformation.
Rights
© The Author
Is Part Of
Master of Urban and Regional Planning Capstone Projects
Recommended Citation
Sturgis, Matthew S. (2026). Richmond, Fredericksburg & Potomac Passenger Rail Performance and Ridership Study. Master of Urban and Regional Planning Capstone, Virginia Commonwealth University, L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. Prepared for the Virginia Passenger Rail Authority.
Comments
Prepared as a Master of Urban and Regional Planning capstone project for the Virginia Passenger Rail Authority. This report evaluates potential speed, reliability, and ridership improvements for passenger rail service on the RF&P Corridor that serves between Richmond and Washington.